Thursday: Personal Income & Outlays, Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2022 08:31:00 PM

o Early, Census Bureau to Release Vintage 2021 Population Estimates (this might be delayed)

o At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 230 thousand up from 229 thousand last week.

o At 8:30 AM, Personal Income and Outlays, May 2022. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.4%. PCE prices are expected to be up 6.2% YoY, and core PCE prices up 4.7% YoY.

o At 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID MetricsNowWeek
AgoGoalPercent fully Vaccinated66.9%—>=70.0%1Fully Vaccinated (millions)222.1—>=2321New Cases per Day3?108,50599,702<=5,0002Hospitalized3?26,23225,023<=3,0002Deaths per Day3?321283<=5021 Minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated between 70% and 85%).
2my goals to stop daily posts,
37-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths
? Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths

? Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

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