by Calculated Risk on 3/31/2023 08:36:00 AM
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February:
The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.3 percent. Real DPI increased 0.2 percent in February and Real PCE decreased 0.1 percent; goods and services each decreased 0.1 percent.
The February PCE price index increased 5.0 percent year-over-year (YoY), down from 5.3 percent YoY in January, and down from the recent peak of 7.0 percent in June 2022.
The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2023 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the change.
The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.
Personal income was at expectations, and the increase in PCE was below expectations.
Using the two-month method to estimate Q1 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 4.0% annual rate in Q1 2023. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 4.7%)