New Home Sales Increase to 696,000 Annual Rate in May

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2022 10:09:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 696 thousand.

The previous three months were revised up, combined.

Sales of new single-family houses in May 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 696,000, according to
estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
This is 10.7 percent above the revised April rate of 629,000, but is 5.9 percent below the May 2021 estimate of 740,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales are now at pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply decreased in May to 7.7 months from 8.3 months in April.

The all-time record high was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

“The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 444,000. This represents a supply of 7.7 months at the current sales rate.”

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In May 2022 (red column), 63 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 65 thousand homes were sold in May.

The all-time high for May was 120 thousand in 2005, and the all-time low for May was 26 thousand in 2010.

This was above expectations, and sales in the three previous months were revised up, combined. I’ll have more later today.

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