In One Chart: War inflation is slowing. Here’s the S&P 500 level where a Bank of America strategist says investors should ‘gorge’ on stocks.

Are we past the worst financial side effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, created a war inflation chart. It’s a simple index of Brent crude oil
European natural gas and wheat

prices — the three commodities mostly clearly tied to the direction of the conflict.

Wheat prices have dropped 44%, Brent oil has dropped 24% and European gas has dropped 21% from their peak. Hartnett says it doesn’t make sense for Russia to close the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline indefinitely. That pipeline is shut until July 21 for scheduled maintenance.

Related: Here’s the sector most at risk of Russia permanently shutting off gas to Germany

Hartnett, who’s been pessimistic on stocks, said there are risks to the consensus view of both a shallow recession, and that shallow inflation will kill inflation, allowing a pivot by the Fed to refocus on growth. He says in real terms — that is, adjusted for inflation — policy rates are still deeply negative, at -6.7% in the U.S., -8.8% for the eurozone, -6.1% in the U.K. and -2.5% in Japan.

A spiking dollar
he adds, often portends credit events, as it did in 1998, 2008 and 2020. The dollar reached new 20-year highs this year as the greenback rallied against the euro and the Japanese yen.

All that said, he gave levels where investors want to buy stocks. A S&P 500

at 3,600 would be grounds to “nibble,” at 3,300 would be room to “bite,” and at 3,000, it would be time to “gorge.”

The S&P 500 index ended Thursday at 3,790.

What's your reaction?

In Love
Not Sure

You may also like

Leave a reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

More in:News