In One Chart: Betting markets favor DeSantis over Trump for 2024 Republican presidential nomination, as FBI raids Mar-a-Lago

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has the edge again over Donald Trump to score the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, according to the latest odds in the betting market PredictIt.

The former president’s prospects have edged down as reports say the FBI searched his Mar-a-Lago estate as part of an investigation into whether he took classified records from the White House to his Florida residence.

DeSantis has a 38% chance, ahead of Trump’s 32% and 5% for Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, according to PredictIt’s data. Former Vice President Mike Pence and other Republican politicians are at 4% or lower.

DeSantis has the edge over Trump for the 2024 GOP nomination, according to the latest PredictIt odds.


DeSantis previously was favored over Trump by PredictIt users in June, but then Trump had the edge in July.

To be sure, betting markets aren’t always right, with PredictIt users, for example, getting a Supreme Court nomination wrong a few years ago.

Republican lawmakers have condemned the FBI raid, which represents an unprecedented escalation of law enforcement scrutiny of the former president.

Some analysts see the turn of events helping Trump in the 2024 race.

“Trump craves publicity and martyrdom, and now he’ll get plenty as the stunning raid dramatically raises the stakes,” said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, in a note on Tuesday. It’s “just what he needed: a foil — the FBI and prosecutors.”

U.S. stocks

opened lower on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 

on track for a fourth down session in a row ahead of Wednesday’s critical reading on July inflation.

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