by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2022 09:46:00 AM
Expectations are the FOMC will announce a 75bp rate increase in the federal funds rate at the meeting this week.
From Goldman Sachs:
Wall Street forecasts have been revised down further since June due to the ongoing negative impacts from the pandemic. the war in Ukraine and financial tightening. For example, from BofA:
1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
The unemployment rate was at 3.6% in June. So far, the economic slowdown has not pushed up the unemployment rate.
2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
As of May 2022, PCE inflation was up 6.3% from May 2021. This was below the cycle high of 6.6% YoY in March. Analysts are expecting inflation to decline slowly.
PCE core inflation was up 4.7% in May year-over-year. This was below the cycle high of 5.3% YoY in February.