By by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2022 03:03:00 PM
Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 12 years. And he has graciously allowed me to share his predictions with the readers of this blog.
The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler’s predictions, and the NAR’s initially reported level of sales. Lawler hasn’t always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler’s estimate and the “consensus”, Lawler has been closer.
The consensus is for 5.41 million SAAR in May. Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.35 million SAAR.
Over the last 12 years, the consensus average miss was 147 thousand, and Lawler’s average miss was 72 thousand.
millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR)MonthConsensusLawlerNAR reported1May-106.205.835.66Jun-105.305.305.37Jul-104.663.953.83Aug-104.104.104.13Sep-104.304.504.53Oct-104.504.464.43Nov-104.854.614.68Dec-104.905.135.28Jan-115.205.175.36Feb-115.155.004.88Mar-115.005.085.10Apr-115.205.155.05May-114.754.804.81Jun-114.904.714.77Jul-114.924.694.67Aug-114.754.925.03Sep-114.934.834.91Oct-114.804.864.97Nov-115.084.404.42Dec-114.604.644.61Jan-124.694.664.57Feb-124.614.634.59Mar-124.624.594.48Apr-124.664.534.62May-124.574.664.55Jun-124.654.564.37Jul-124.504.474.47Aug-124.554.874.82Sep-124.754.704.75Oct-124.744.844.79Nov-124.905.105.04Dec-125.104.974.94Jan-134.904.944.92Feb-135.014.874.98Mar-135.034.894.92Apr-134.925.034.97May-135.005.205.18Jun-135.274.995.08Jul-135.135.335.39Aug-135.255.355.48Sep-135.305.265.29Oct-135.135.085.12Nov-135.024.984.90Dec-134.904.964.87Jan-144.704.674.62Feb-144.644.604.60Mar-144.564.644.59Apr-144.674.704.65May-144.754.814.89Jun-144.994.965.04Jul-145.005.095.15Aug-145.185.125.05Sep-145.095.145.17Oct-145.155.285.26Nov-145.204.904.93Dec-145.055.155.04Jan-155.004.904.82Feb-154.944.874.88Mar-155.045.185.19Apr-155.225.205.04May-155.255.295.35Jun-155.405.455.49Jul-155.415.645.59Aug-155.505.545.31Sep-155.355.565.55Oct-155.415.335.36Nov-155.324.974.76Dec-155.195.365.46Jan-165.325.365.47Feb-165.305.205.08Mar-165.275.275.33Apr-165.405.445.45May-165.645.555.53Jun-165.485.625.57Jul-165.525.415.39Aug-165.445.495.33Sep-165.355.555.47Oct-165.445.475.60Nov-165.545.605.61Dec-165.545.555.49Jan-175.555.605.69Feb-175.555.415.48Mar-175.615.745.71Apr-175.675.565.57May-175.555.655.62Jun-175.585.595.52Jul-175.575.385.44Aug-175.485.395.35Sep-175.305.385.39Oct-175.305.605.48Nov-175.525.775.81Dec-175.755.665.57Jan-185.655.485.38Feb-185.425.445.54Mar-185.285.515.60Apr-185.605.485.46May-185.565.475.43Jun-185.455.355.38Jul-185.435.405.34Aug-185.365.365.34Sep-185.305.205.15Oct-185.205.315.22Nov-185.195.235.32Dec-185.244.974.99Jan-195.054.924.94Feb-195.085.465.51Mar-195.305.405.21Apr-195.365.315.19May-195.295.405.34Jun-195.345.255.27Jul-195.395.405.42Aug-195.385.425.49Sep-195.455.365.38Oct-195.495.365.46Nov-195.455.435.35Dec-195.435.405.54Jan-205.455.425.46Feb-205.505.585.77Mar-205.305.255.27Apr-204.304.174.33May-204.383.803.91Jun-204.864.654.72Jul-205.395.855.86Aug-206.005.926.00Sep-206.256.386.54Oct-206.456.636.85Nov-206.706.506.69Dec-206.556.626.76Jan-216.606.486.69Feb-216.516.296.22Mar-216.176.026.01Apr-216.095.965.85May-215.745.785.80Jun-215.905.795.86Jul-215.845.865.99Aug-215.885.905.88Sep-216.066.206.29Oct-216.206.346.34Nov-216.206.456.46Dec-216.456.336.18Jan-226.126.366.50Feb-226.165.976.02Mar-225.805.745.77Apr-225.625.575.61May-225.415.35NA1NAR initially reported before revisions.
