by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2022 10:00:00 AM
Note: The second graph – residential investment as a percent of GDP – is useful in predicting a Fed induced recession. RI as a percent of GDP usually turns down well in advance of a recession. This will be something to watch.
Earlier from the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)
The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by increases in exports and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The advance Q2 GDP report, at -0.9% annualized, was below expectations, primarily due to a negative impact from a decrease in inventories.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased at a 1.0% annualized rate in Q2.
The graph below shows the contribution to GDP from residential investment, equipment and software, and nonresidential structures (3 quarter trailing average). This is important to follow because residential investment tends to lead the economy, equipment and software is generally coincident, and nonresidential structure investment trails the economy.
In the graph, red is residential, green is equipment and software, and blue is investment in non-residential structures. So, the usual pattern – both into and out of recessions is – red, green, blue.
Of course – with the sudden economic stop due to COVID-19 – the usual pattern didn’t apply.
The dashed gray line is the contribution from the change in private inventories.
Residential investment (RI) decreased at a 14.0% annual rate in Q2. Equipment investment decreased at a 2.7% annual rate, and investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 11.7% annual rate.
On a 3-quarter trailing average basis, RI (red) is down, equipment (green) is up, and nonresidential structures (blue) is still down.
Residential Investment as a percent of GDP decreased in Q2.
I’ll break down Residential Investment into components after the GDP details are
Note: Residential investment (RI) includes new single-family structures,
multifamily structures, home improvement, broker’s commissions, and a few minor